Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5842…5ab8 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$291 (-13%) realized −$287 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$589
7 days−$428
14 days−$346
30 days−$346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$84
other 44% −$225
crypto 1% −$21
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -23.1% -30.4% 27% 27% -29.5%
≤30d 44 -12.0% -20.4% 30% 30% -24.7%
≤90d 44 -12.0% -20.4% 30% 30% -24.7%
all 44 -12.0% -20.4% 30% 30% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 30% -24.7%
10% -28.0% 30% -31.9%
15% -35.0% 30% -38.5%
20% -41.3% 27% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$33 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$287
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage8d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 69¢ 68¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $126 −$89 -70%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$22 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $91 −$62 -68%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$2 -10%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$34 +110%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$92 +893%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$6 -8%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $147 +$91 +62%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$93 +91%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$75 +57%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$51 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $122 −$83 -68%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $51 −$21 -40%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $40 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 42¢ $20 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 16h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $30 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 27h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 36h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 33¢ $31 37h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 38h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 2¢ $10 38h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $51 38h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $30 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) SELL 35¢ $18 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) SELL 53¢ $29 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 54¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 29¢ $41 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $41 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 92¢ $102 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.15 · official $166.15 · 88 history records