Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5842…5e04 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$213 (-10%) realized −$213 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -17.5%
≤30d 24 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -17.5%
≤90d 24 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -17.5%
all 24 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 33% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 29% -25.4%
15% -41.5% 25% -32.6%
20% -47.3% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$48 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$44 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $70 −$27 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $107 +$113 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $130 +$44 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $194 −$50 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $104 +$61 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $109 −$58 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $81 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $106 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $53 −$32 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $52 +$53 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $255 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $78 −$28 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $78 +$91 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $18 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $43 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $220 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $78 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 116 history records