Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5844…035a sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,172 (-12%) realized −$1,133 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,016
7 days+$813
14 days−$476
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$903
other 24% +$577
crypto 15% +$2
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +24.5% +12.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 55 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 40% -16.9%
≤90d 64 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 41% -16.9%
all 64 +5.0% -5.0% 47% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 41% -16.9%
10% -14.1% 41% -24.8%
15% -22.4% 39% -32.1%
20% -30.0% 39% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$102 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized−$1,133
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions12
Markets (closed)64 / 87
History coverage67d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 36¢ 36¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 42¢ 42¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $101 $85 −$16 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $102 +$406 +396%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$243 +236%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$122 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$75 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $103 +$144 +140%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$101 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 −$101 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$352 +344%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $103 +$99 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$81 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$155 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $103 −$101 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$283 +277%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$139 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $107 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $102 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $103 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $102 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 20¢ $102 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $102 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $103 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $103 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $103 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $102 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $102 27h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $103 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 39h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $103 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $103 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $102 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (- BUY 10¢ $103 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $307 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 23¢ $102 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 8¢ $103 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 9¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.54 · official $1,064.54 (match) · 143 history records