Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
58 0x5848…6d5f other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$606 (-26%) realized −$606 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days+$976
14 days+$526
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$234
world 9% −$203
sports 8% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-57.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.2% +47.7% 50% 50% +118.4%
≤30d 3 +8.8% -1.5% 33% 33% +32.2%
≤90d 4 -18.4% -26.2% 25% 25% -27.5%
all 7 -53.4% -57.8% 14% 14% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.8% 14% -34.0%
10% -61.8% 14% -40.3%
15% -65.5% 14% -46.0%
20% -68.9% 14% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,156 vs −$295 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$606
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage118d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $184 −$180 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 +$1,156 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $458 −$450 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? Apr 13 $940 −$940 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $184 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $458 10d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $940 73d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records