Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5849…c7c7 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$743 (-26%) realized −$743 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$542
7 days−$542
14 days−$542
30 days−$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$213
other 43% −$756
crypto 12% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤30d 4 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤90d 4 +21.0% +9.5% 50% 50% -29.3%
all 15 +5.2% -4.8% 53% 53% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 53% -27.3%
10% -13.9% 47% -34.2%
15% -22.3% 33% -40.6%
20% -29.9% 33% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$138 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage147d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $799 −$122 -15%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $465 +$334 +72%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,217 −$756 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Jan 28 $25 −$3 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 5PM ET Jan 27 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 4PM ET Jan 27 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 3PM ET Jan 27 $25 −$22 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 2PM ET Jan 27 $82 −$29 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 5PM ET Jan 26 $97 +$25 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3PM ET Jan 26 $15 +$13 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2PM ET Jan 26 $20 +$5 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Jan 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 6PM ET Jan 26 $34 +$28 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $107 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $29 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $8 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $4 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $34 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $362 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $12 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $27 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $796 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $798 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $67 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $398 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $462 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,217 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 144d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 144d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 144d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 144d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 144d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records