Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x584b…802d crypto 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$224 (+0%) realized +$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate83%112W / 23L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$28
sports 18% −$14
economics 12% −$8
crypto 5% −$117
world 1% −$13
politics 0% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 135 +4.3% -5.7% 83% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 11% -9.1%
10% -14.7% 8% -17.8%
15% -22.9% 7% -25.8%
20% -30.5% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses112 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage585d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? May 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? Mar 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Feb 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 1-7? Dec 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 1-7? Dec 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 04 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? Dec 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? Nov 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 4? Nov 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 04 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? Oct 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12? Oct 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 October 6-12? Oct 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 October 6-12? Oct 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana dip to $170 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on October 2? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.50 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $200 on October 2? Oct 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 September 29-October 5? Oct 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 01 $25 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 01 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Oct 01 $26 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 01 $26 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 01 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on September 10? Sep 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $104K on September 10? Sep 17 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3900 on September 10? Sep 17 $22 $0 +0%
XRP above $2.40 on September 5? Sep 09 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $120K on September 3? Sep 09 $20 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on September 1? Sep 09 $20 $0 +0%
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch? Sep 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on September 1? Sep 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $111K on September 1 at Sep 09 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $43 44d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 44d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $63 78d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 78d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $72 102d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 102d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $72 141d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 141d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 165d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $100 165d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $51 180d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $26 202d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $25 202d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $40 202d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $40 202d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in November? BUY No 99¢ $26 210d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 24? BUY No 99¢ $26 212d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $26 232d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 99¢ $24 232d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $28 232d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $26 232d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $26 232d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 253d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $40 253d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $40 253d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $27 253d
Will Solana reach $300 October 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $22 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.93 · official $133.93 (match) · 280 history records