Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:10:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x584d…67c3 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 414d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%42W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$92
other 18% −$44
politics 5% +$61
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% +$1
culture 3% −$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -3.8% -13.0% 31% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 34 -3.9% -13.0% 32% 0% -10.6%
all 121 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

414d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses42 / 79
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage414d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $55 −$5 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $51 −$2 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$4 -52%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $300 −$101 -34%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $472 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $315 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $307 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $323 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $147 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $164 −$3 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $142 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $148 −$8 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $207 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $96 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $963 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,908 +$20 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 31 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Dec 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $14 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -86%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 05 $15 +$1 +4%
Will X buy TikTok? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $36 +$55 +151%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $45 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $12 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $35 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $46 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $46 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $47 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $17 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $51 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $51 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $46 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $50 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $55 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $50 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $49 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $49 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $37 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 520 history records