Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5851…656d crypto 78 markets active 20h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+4%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%47W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$13
other 17% −$3
sports 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 44% -9.6%
≤30d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 44% -9.6%
≤90d 77 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 44% -9.6%
all 77 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 44% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 44% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 32% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 23% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses47 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$15 -58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$32 +165%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 69¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 27¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.91 (match) · 226 history records