Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5851…8ed8 other 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$38 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%88W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days+$48
14 days−$66
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$39
politics 30% −$56
sports 17% −$41
crypto 11% −$27
world 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 +22.1% +10.5% 47% 44% +0.4%
≤30d 167 +13.7% +2.8% 53% 43% -16.0%
≤90d 167 +13.7% +2.8% 53% 43% -16.0%
all 167 +13.7% +2.8% 53% 43% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 43% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 39% -24.0%
15% -16.0% 32% -31.3%
20% -24.2% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses88 / 79
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)167 / 170
History coverage16d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +39%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +264%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -92%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 23 $5 −$2 -41%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $55 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.49 · official $64.49 (match) · 409 history records