Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x5851…1352
other · 125 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$46 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$46 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$51
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 102
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage94d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 124 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $60 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $47 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $152 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $148 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $99 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $50 −$2 -5%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $59 −$1 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $166 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $227 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $212 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? May 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $341 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 27% −$12
other 24% −$12
sports 19% −$16
crypto 8% $0
world 8% $0
culture 5% −$3
economics 5% −$2
finance 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $51 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $49 2h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $31 8h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $19 8h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $60 8h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $60 16h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 17h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $47 23h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $51 24h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $51 28h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $13 28h
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $13 32h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $61 33h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 92¢ $62 38h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 39h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $38 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $57 43h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 96¢ $9 2d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $9 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $49 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 56 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 119 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 124 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.81 · official $50.81 (match) · 446 history records