Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5854…8699 crypto 781 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$466 (-3%) realized −$466 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%456W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day118.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days−$278
14 days−$485
30 days−$510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$508
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 -9.1% -17.8% 73% 16% -12.5%
≤30d 781 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 30% -12.8%
≤90d 781 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 30% -12.8%
all 781 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 30% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 28% -21.2%
15% -32.4% 27% -28.8%
20% -39.1% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$466
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses456 / 325
Open positions0
Markets (closed)781 / 781
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day118.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 781 Trades
no open positions (183 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $23 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $27 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $26 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2798 history records