Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5854…1f78 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$54
other 28% −$110
culture 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 3 -36.7% -42.7% 0% 0% -22.1%
≤90d 3 -36.7% -42.7% 0% 0% -22.1%
all 25 -12.7% -21.0% 32% 24% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 24% -12.7%
10% -28.6% 24% -21.0%
15% -35.5% 24% -28.7%
20% -41.8% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$40 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage275d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $125 −$3 -2%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 01 $101 −$8 -8%
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) Feb 11 $498 +$219 +44%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Oct 23 $139 −$139 -100%
Pistons vs. Bulls Oct 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Raptors vs. Hawks Oct 23 $50 +$97 +194%
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $50 −$6 -11%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? Oct 22 $75 −$75 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $67 +$50 +75%
Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 Oct 22 $60 +$45 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $75 +$51 +68%
Devils vs. Maple Leafs Oct 21 $94 −$62 -65%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? Oct 21 $36 −$3 -9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Oct 21 $60 −$60 -100%
FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Oct 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Oct 21 $100 $0 +0%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 21 $39 +$137 +354%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 21 $51 −$12 -24%
Bears vs. Commanders Oct 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Bills vs. Falcons Oct 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 13 $39 −$16 -40%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Oct 13 $50 −$19 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $122 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $125 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 34¢ $24 18d
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Bryce Mitchell 53¢ $101 24d
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) BUY Netherlands 67¢ $82 131d
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Netherlands (Game 1) BUY Netherlands 70¢ $416 131d
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 40¢ $139 241d
Pistons vs. Bulls BUY Pistons 11¢ $8 241d
Raptors vs. Hawks SELL Raptors 100¢ $147 241d
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-10-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 241d
Pistons vs. Bulls BUY Pistons 58¢ $91 241d
Raptors vs. Hawks BUY Raptors 34¢ $50 241d
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2025-10-22? BUY No 58¢ $75 241d
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-10-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $44 241d
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-10-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 241d
Warriors vs. Lakers BUY Warriors 57¢ $67 242d
Kraken vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $60 242d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 242d
Devils vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 53¢ $32 242d
Devils vs. Maple Leafs SELL Devils 47¢ $32 242d
Devils vs. Maple Leafs BUY Devils 48¢ $33 242d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? SELL No 57¢ $33 242d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the NFC West? BUY No 63¢ $36 242d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $75 242d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $105 242d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 242d
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-10-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 242d
Ducks vs. Predators BUY Predators 56¢ $60 242d
FC København vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 242d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records