Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x5855…b7ea other 4 markets active 2d ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% −$13
sports 23% +$16
politics 12% −$1
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.3% -18.8% 50% 50% +35.6%
≤30d 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% -10.9%
≤90d 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% -10.9%
all 3 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 33% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 33% -10.9%
10% -30.8% 33% -19.4%
15% -37.4% 33% -27.2%
20% -43.6% 33% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage33d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $52 −$13 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.15 · official $9.15 (match) · 26 history records