Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5855…910d crypto 44 markets active 7d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 20% -20.0%
≤30d 20 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 20% -20.0%
≤90d 44 -1.7% -11.0% 66% 34% -13.8%
all 44 -1.7% -11.0% 66% 34% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 34% -13.8%
10% -19.6% 16% -22.1%
15% -27.3% 5% -29.6%
20% -34.5% 5% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 24 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 24 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$3 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 24 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 24 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records