Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x5858…dc6b sports 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,349 (+20%) realized +$18,274 · open +$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%75W / 91L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$554per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,146
7 days+$1,093
14 days+$1,093
30 days+$1,093
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$20,934
other 5% −$3,134
crypto 0% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 42% -2.9%
≤30d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 42% -2.9%
≤90d 36 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 42% -2.9%
all 166 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 45% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 45% +7.6%
10% -18.0% 45% -2.7%
15% -25.9% 45% -12.1%
20% -33.2% 45% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$638) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$447 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$1,140
Realized+$18,274
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage134d
Avg bet$554
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $1,066 $1,140 +$75 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $649 −$638 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $574 +$653 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,024 +$1,076 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,070 −$1,055 -99%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $306 −$306 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 17 $188 −$188 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 +$513 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $645 +$486 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,112 +$1,009 +91%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $97 +$136 +140%
Alexander Zverev vs. Vit Kopriva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 +$300 +300%
Gustavo Heide vs. Daniel Michalski: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $204 −$202 -99%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Sho Shimabukuro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $319 +$381 +120%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $318 +$285 +90%
Pedro Martinez vs. Daniel Rincon: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Chris Rodesch: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $618 +$527 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $327 +$466 +142%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $585 −$572 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $705 −$117 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,039 −$1,024 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $495 −$492 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Nuno Borges vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $122 −$122 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 +$625 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $474 −$474 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $337 −$330 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $357 +$453 +127%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $356 −$356 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $277 −$277 -100%
Auckland FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $999 +$960 +96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $180 −$178 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $95 −$95 -100%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 28 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 28 $2,665 +$3,390 +127%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $968 −$968 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $697 −$697 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniil Medvedev Feb 27 $356 −$356 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 27 $556 −$556 -100%
Santos FC vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $3,664 +$5,741 +157%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Fenerbahçe SK: O/U 3.5 Feb 26 $3,004 −$3,004 -100%
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. Panathinaikós AO: O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Jiri Lehecka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 26 $404 −$404 -100%
Jets vs. Canucks Feb 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Stoke City FC vs. Oxford United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 25 $556 +$753 +135%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 3.5 Feb 25 $717 −$717 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,081 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $83 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $524 2h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $574 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,024 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,070 10h
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $237 11h
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $40 11h
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 51¢ $29 11h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Sonego 45¢ $1 13h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Sonego 45¢ $44 13h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Sonego 45¢ $45 13h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Sonego 45¢ $90 13h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) BUY Sonego 46¢ $8 13h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $83 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $0 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 24¢ $9 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $487 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,140.09 · official $1,140.09 (match) · 723 history records