Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5858…1ebc crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$384 (+5%) realized +$384 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate83%71W / 15L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 27% −$216
sports 25% +$638
other 16% +$27
tech 12% +$7
politics 12% −$87
world 7% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 6% -14.7%
all 86 +5.0% -5.0% 83% 22% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 22% -4.7%
10% -14.1% 14% -13.9%
15% -22.4% 9% -22.2%
20% -30.0% 6% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$33 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses71 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage597d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 25 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $1,001 −$69 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? May 12 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 03 $161 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans Apr 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 29 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 17 $80 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 13 $569 +$211 +37%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Dec 07 $159 +$410 +257%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $159 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Lakers Dec 02 $72 +$128 +178%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 26 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 11 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $69 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150-159 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $63 +$5 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $220 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? Feb 13 $214 +$6 +3%
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Feb 11 $203 −$94 -46%
Will Elon Musk tweet 300-349 times February 7-14? Feb 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 07 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Feb 06 $100 −$2 -2%
Magomedov vs. Page Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 03 $196 +$7 +3%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Jan 30 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Solana dip to $120 by January 31, 2025? Jan 29 $230 +$3 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Jan 20 $265 −$3 -1%
Will Solana hit $225 by January 31, 2025? Jan 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Jan 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Biden pardon Julian Assange? Jan 16 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 16 $250 +$2 +1%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 14 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $180 by January 31, 2025? Jan 14 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Jan 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Ripple hit in $4.00 in December? Jan 06 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 06 $70 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL No 100¢ $46 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $41 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $46 35d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? SELL No 100¢ $45 35d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 87¢ $932 36d
Will Solana dip to $10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $45 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $41 51d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 51d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 51d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $43 51d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $12 51d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $76 71d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1,001 71d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 72d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 81d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $20 81d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 86d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $40 87d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 87d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $81 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.92 · official $167.92 (match) · 322 history records