Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
58 0x585b…3a9c crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%40W / 10L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$1
other 29% $0
politics 15% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 50 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.56 per $1 lost it wins $2.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses40 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage494d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $13 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy? Mar 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Baylor win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $18 $0 +2%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Feb 22 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 93d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 93d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 122d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 151d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 183d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 183d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 211d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $23 243d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $5 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 333d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $18 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 362d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.08 · official $40.08 (match) · 107 history records