Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x585c…f0a7 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,919 (+4%) realized +$5,919 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 50L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,485per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$2,764
sports 3% +$41
crypto 2% −$3
world 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.4% -12.6% 21% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 29 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 85 -0.7% -10.1% 48% 0% -10.2%
all 104 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 3% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 3% -7.9%
10% -17.4% 3% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 2% -24.7%
20% -32.7% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,950) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$53 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$1,485
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $999 −$56 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $890 −$3 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,668 −$14 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,302 −$98 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,190 +$30 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,410 −$6 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $830 $0 -0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $624 −$109 -18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,130 −$140 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,650 −$286 -17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,190 −$30 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $270 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,600 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,080 −$169 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,610 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,406 −$85 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $210 +$2 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,120 +$80 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $242 +$22 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $844 +$32 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $444 +$12 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $560 +$12 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$1 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $170 −$3 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $116 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 +$2 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $134 +$4 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $1,950 +$179 +9%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3,200 +$95 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,970 −$254 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,222 −$112 -9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3,330 +$80 +2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,189 −$65 -3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $8,960 −$123 -1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $1,650 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $843 +$8 +1%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,581 +$27 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,540 +$20 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,170 +$30 +3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5,218 +$43 +1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2,680 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,290 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 27 $1,710 +$30 +2%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,290 +$30 +2%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $2,440 +$10 +0%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $1,234 $0 -0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,620 −$60 -4%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,890 −$69 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 48¢ $473 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $887 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,654 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $1,204 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $830 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $405 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $362 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $832 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,302 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $529 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 47¢ $131 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 47¢ $339 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $470 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 62¢ $201 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 62¢ $419 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 70¢ $694 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $710 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 60¢ $600 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 60¢ $592 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 60¢ $8 30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $710 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records