Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x585f…7e92 crypto 629 markets active 4d ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$723 (-4%) realized −$723 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%292W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$490
14 days−$318
30 days−$892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$971
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 48% -18.2%
≤30d 449 -5.8% -14.8% 48% 48% -14.7%
≤90d 629 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 46% -15.0%
all 629 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 46% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 46% -15.0%
10% -25.4% 46% -23.1%
15% -32.6% 46% -30.5%
20% -39.2% 46% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses292 / 337
Open positions0
Markets (closed)629 / 629
History coverage49d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 629 Trades
no open positions (269 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$22 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$37 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$53 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$37 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$38 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$20 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$52 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$41 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$42 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$23 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$41 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$41 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $46 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $61 +$57 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $47 −$45 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $57 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $43 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1163 history records