Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5862…50e0 world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate39%24W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
sports 30% +$10
politics 19% +$2
other 5% −$3
weather 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 22% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 40 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 8% -9.5%
all 62 -0.5% -9.9% 39% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses24 / 38
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage485d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $22 −$7 -31%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $125 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $77 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $63 −$4 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $45 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3 +$1 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $29 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $5 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $22 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $238 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $236 +$4 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $260 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 05 $12 −$2 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 04 $18 −$6 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $41 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $41 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $21 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $21 26h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $45 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $36 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $3 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.08 · official $37.19 (match) · 219 history records