Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5862…1a69 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 75d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-7%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 21% −$19
finance 20% +$6
crypto 20% −$52
world 18% +$4
other 18% +$11
sports 4% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.6% -1.8% 100% 0% -1.8%
≤30d 7 -25.8% -32.8% 43% 29% -21.5%
≤90d 9 -14.3% -22.4% 56% 33% -16.2%
all 9 -14.3% -22.4% 56% 33% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -16.2%
10% -29.8% 11% -24.2%
15% -36.6% 11% -31.5%
20% -42.8% 0% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage75d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 25 $50 +$4 +9%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 10 $47 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 31 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 31 $98 +$11 +11%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $118 −$19 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $111 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs CSGOPOSITIVE (BO3) - Exort Ser May 25 $20 +$9 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records