Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5869…071d crypto 488 markets active 0h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,863 (+3%) realized +$1,902 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%269W / 214L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$86
14 days+$394
30 days+$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$2,337
other 27% +$46
sports 23% −$803
culture 3% +$139
economics 2% −$8
world 2% +$104
finance 2% +$32
politics 1% +$22
weather 1% +$2
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -38.7% -44.6% 41% 18% -12.0%
≤30d 56 -23.6% -30.8% 41% 25% -7.8%
≤90d 93 -36.9% -42.9% 37% 24% -18.0%
all 483 -5.2% -14.2% 56% 36% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 36% -6.7%
10% -22.4% 28% -15.6%
15% -29.9% 23% -23.8%
20% -36.8% 18% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$1,902
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses269 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)483 / 488
History coverage407d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 88¢ 87¢ $756 $746 −$9 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? No 18¢ 4¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-80%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $768 −$8 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$155 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$8 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$28 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $824 +$85 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$9 +29%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $407 +$17 +4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $574 +$19 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$25 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -57%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $5 −$3 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 +$44 +46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,034 +$12 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,735 +$344 +20%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $997 −$44 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,456 −$51 -4%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,096 −$25 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,162 −$77 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$5 +38%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $222 −$19 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $271 −$19 -7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $338 +$48 +14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $686 +$251 +37%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $164 +$10 +6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $20 −$5 -25%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 01 $556 +$34 +6%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $528 +$27 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $444 +$84 +19%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $22 −$22 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 26 $11 +$9 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $168 −$51 -31%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $59 +$47 +80%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $115 −$57 -50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $53 −$11 -21%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $79 −$8 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 88¢ $760 12m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 83¢ $760 22m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $768 28m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 21¢ $17 42m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 21¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 9¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $46 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $37 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $57 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $12 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.12 · official $756.12 (match) · 2624 history records