Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x586b…3954 crypto 433 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$397 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%310W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$131
30 days−$397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$219
sports 14% −$183
other 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -3.9% -13.0% 73% 24% -13.2%
≤30d 432 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 22% -12.0%
≤90d 432 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 22% -12.0%
all 432 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 22% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 22% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 7% -20.4%
15% -29.0% 2% -28.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$397
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses310 / 122
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)432 / 433
History coverage27d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Marsborne 72¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Croatia Switzerland 86¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres Sabres 53¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire Connecticut Sun 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 21¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 91¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Athletics 82¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $27 +$2 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$2 +9%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 −$2 -41%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $34 −$18 -54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $16 +$2 +15%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $14 +$1 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $14 +$1 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $22 +$2 +10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $7 −$2 -34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$2 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $6 −$1 -15%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $25 −$12 -49%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play BUY Marsborne 72¢ $5 10m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 99¢ $29 22m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 98¢ $18 41m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 90¢ $10 55m
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $6 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 90¢ $5 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 99¢ $28 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 93¢ $27 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $0 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Kansas City Royals 100¢ $15 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 99¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $6 2h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 97¢ $15 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 83¢ $5 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 94¢ $5 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 89¢ $5 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $2 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 98¢ $0 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 98¢ $22 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $22 19h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 99¢ $0 19h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 99¢ $22 19h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 98¢ $22 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 83¢ $9 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $8 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.11 · official $6.11 (match) · 1519 history records