Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x586b…3375 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate26%23W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$6
politics 27% −$3
other 16% +$14
economics 10% $0
sports 10% −$20
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 21 -1.0% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 +29.1% +16.8% 23% 2% -9.7%
all 87 +21.4% +9.9% 26% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 6% -10.0%
10% -0.6% 5% -18.7%
15% -10.2% 5% -26.5%
20% -19.0% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses23 / 64
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage531d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -27%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $82 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $66 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 22 $82 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $9 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $17 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $85 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $9 $0 -4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $136 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 24 $79 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $91 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $43 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $44 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $45 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $45 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.62 · official $0.00 · 348 history records