Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x586d…a22e crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$11
sports 20% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 53% +18.4%
≤30d 15 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 53% +18.4%
≤90d 15 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 53% +18.4%
all 15 +7.5% -2.7% 60% 53% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.7% 53% +18.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.0% 47% +7.0%
15% -20.5% 33% -3.3%
20% -28.3% 20% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 37¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $24 +$19 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$17 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 55¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $3.95 · 34 history records