Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
58 0x5871…c0bd other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%30W / 48L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$114
14 days+$265
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$139
sports 28% +$176
weather 13% −$29
crypto 4% +$2
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$6
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +42.4% +28.9% 50% 50% +33.7%
≤30d 37 +111.1% +91.0% 54% 54% +73.5%
≤90d 64 +39.1% +25.9% 38% 38% +32.3%
all 78 +29.2% +16.9% 38% 36% +29.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 36% +29.7%
10% +5.7% 35% +17.2%
15% -4.5% 33% +5.9%
20% -13.9% 33% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +101% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses30 / 48
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 106
History coverage193d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $15 +$20 +129%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$23 +219%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$25 +248%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $5 +$6 +124%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a dr Jun 21 $10 +$104 +1017%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $10 +$17 +171%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$29 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$31 +205%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$9 +442%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$100 +1527%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 06 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $7 −$4 -52%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $6 −$3 -51%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $8 +$10 +128%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $34 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 29¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 29h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 47h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY 18¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 8¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 6¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 3¢ $5 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $18 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 4¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-2 BUY 7¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 8¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.57 · official $53.50 (match) · 207 history records