Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x5871…0def sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$128 (-1%) realized −$60 · open −$68
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%42W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$163
14 days+$163
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$274
other 8% −$630
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.2% +54.9% 38% 38% +16.6%
≤30d 14 +50.6% +36.2% 43% 43% -1.3%
≤90d 85 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 35% -11.1%
all 114 +0.3% -9.2% 37% 37% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 37% -11.1%
10% -17.9% 37% -19.6%
15% -25.8% 37% -27.4%
20% -33.1% 36% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$92 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses42 / 72
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage98d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 16¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 28¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 −$26 -39%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 −$33 -33%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$384 +767%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $113 −$110 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $50 +$63 +127%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $74 −$72 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $69 −$67 -97%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 23 $200 −$194 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $87 −$85 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $93 −$5 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $50 +$43 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 23 $50 +$77 +153%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $100 +$105 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 20 $250 −$244 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $250 +$238 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 18 $250 −$243 -97%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 17 $250 −$244 -98%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $69 +$36 +52%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) May 17 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $50 −$49 -96%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $75 −$73 -97%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $153 −$77 -51%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $199 −$174 -88%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $24 −$11 -45%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $150 +$288 +192%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $40 −$17 -43%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 16 $500 +$504 +101%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $50 −$41 -81%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $499 −$486 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $167 −$163 -97%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 09 $200 −$195 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $98 −$95 -97%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $100 +$97 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $400 +$373 +93%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 04 $95 −$93 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 04 $100 −$5 -5%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 04 $150 −$148 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $250 +$233 +93%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $250 +$162 +65%
1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 01 $250 −$246 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $20 +$84 +414%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 27 $413 −$5 -1%
Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline Apr 25 $295 −$291 -99%
Spread: Rockets (-8.5) Apr 24 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5) Apr 24 $47 +$38 +79%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $246 +$180 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $41 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $67 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $67 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 1h
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 10h
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 10h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 25h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $113 29h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 99¢ $113 29h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 42¢ $50 35h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $74 47h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 50¢ $74 47h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $50 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $69 2d
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $200 29d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $87 29d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $87 29d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $93 29d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL St. Louis Cardinals 96¢ $93 29d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $50 29d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) SELL Thunder 100¢ $127 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 100¢ $205 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $100 30d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 38¢ $50 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 48¢ $250 32d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 40¢ $250 34d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 50¢ $250 34d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pistons 48¢ $250 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 192 history records