Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

58 0x5872…e66b culture 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d

TRAPdo not copy culture specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$23 (-17%) realized −$21 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip

Net edge-76%after slip

Net WR8%break-even

Win rate8%1W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit92%portable

Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +8%

net ROI/market (all)-75.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	12	-73.0%	-75.5%	8%	8%	-39.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-75.5%	8%	-39.1%
10%	-77.9%	8%	-45.0%
15%	-80.0%	8%	-50.3%
20%	-82.0%	8%	-55.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -73% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late -46% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$5 · ×6.46 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage

Net worth$58

Realized−$21

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)8%

Wins / losses1 / 11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)12 / 13

History coverage133d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	Yes	66¢	64¢	$60	$58	−$2 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Mar 16	$15	+$33	+224%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?	Mar 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?	Mar 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?	Mar 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?	Mar 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?	Mar 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Mar 15	$27	−$27	-100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Mar 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Feb 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Feb 09	$9	−$9	-100%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less	Feb 09	$1	−$1	-100%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get betw	Feb 09	$1	−$1	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	1h
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	99d
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	99d
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	99d
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	99d
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	99d
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 2 awards at the Oscars?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	99d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	53¢	$6	99d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	38¢	$13	99d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	57¢	$6	101d
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	101d
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	118d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	4¢	$3	118d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	77¢	$14	133d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	133d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	BUY Yes	3¢	$9	133d
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	133d
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get betw	BUY Yes	15¢	$1	133d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.05 · official $58.05 (match) · 19 history records