Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5873…d741 politics 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$6
politics 26% +$1
other 21% −$3
sports 10% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.0% -6.8% 60% 20% -5.5%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 14% -7.2%
≤90d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 43% 14% -7.2%
all 54 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage268d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $40 +$7 +18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -3%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 23 $1 $0 +29%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 23 $2 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $25 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $22 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31? Oct 11 $24 −$1 -6%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 08 $2 $0 -8%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $2 $0 -15%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $3 $0 -1%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 29 $8 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $29 4m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $39 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $33 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $6 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $37 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $37 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.79 · official $13.05 (match) · 187 history records