Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

58
0x5874…a9d7
sports · 422 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$882 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$878 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$548
Realized−$878
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses192 / 223
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)415 / 422
History coverage428d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 7 History 415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 76¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 61¢ 56¢ $138 $126 −$12 (-9%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 35¢ 28¢ $103 $83 −$20 (-20%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ 75¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+74%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ 16¢ $106 $48 −$58 (-55%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 41¢ 45¢ $37 $41 +$4 (+10%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-4%)
Cubs vs. Brewers Cubs 54¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Twins vs. Dodgers Twins 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Twins vs. Rockies Twins 22¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Blue Jays 40¢ 0¢ $696 $0 −$696 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Rare Earth" during the Energy and Innovation Summit on July 15? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
76ers vs. Wizards Wizards 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Astros vs. Diamondbacks Diamondbacks 22¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Orioles vs. Rays Orioles 65¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - July 22, 1PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Radical left" 3+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21? No 66¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Pirates vs. Giants Giants 56¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Astros vs. Red Sox Astros 46¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $326 $0 −$326 (-100%)
Reds vs. Nationals Reds 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Brewers vs. Dodgers Dodgers 32¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Tigers vs. Rangers Tigers 17¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 13 $62 −$37 -59%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $31 +$50 +163%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $31 −$14 -46%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $30 +$17 +56%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 +$39 +126%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $99 +$54 +54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Oct 08 $326 −$326 -100%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 08 $350 −$22 -6%
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 08 $996 −$696 -70%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 08 $300 +$25 +8%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 08 $237 −$204 -86%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 08 $150 −$12 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Oct 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Oct 07 $202 +$43 +21%
Dodgers vs. Phillies Oct 07 $200 +$254 +127%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 06 $50 +$12 +24%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 06 $275 +$322 +117%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Oct 06 $261 +$345 +132%
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Oct 04 $171 +$90 +52%
Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech Oct 04 $121 +$50 +41%
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Oct 04 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 04 $152 +$6 +4%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4PM ET Sep 26 $330 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Sep 26 $84 +$36 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Sep 26 $337 −$253 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Sep 26 $270 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Sep 26 $154 +$135 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Sep 26 $138 +$16 +11%
Will Trump say "Radical left" 3+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event Sep 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Astros vs. Red Sox Aug 02 $87 −$87 -100%
Tigers vs. Phillies Aug 02 $34 +$53 +154%
Phillies vs. White Sox Jul 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Pirates vs. Giants Jul 30 $120 −$59 -49%
Braves vs. Royals Jul 30 $34 +$26 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1AM ET Jul 28 $164 +$214 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12AM ET Jul 28 $68 +$96 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 27, 11PM ET Jul 28 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11PM ET Jul 28 $28 +$38 +136%
Mets vs. Giants Jul 28 $20 +$38 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 4PM ET Jul 23 $14 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 3PM ET Jul 23 $21 −$3 -17%
XRP Up or Down - July 23, 3PM ET Jul 23 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2PM ET Jul 23 $14 +$1 +9%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 23 $7 −$4 -56%
Angels vs. Mets Jul 23 $10 −$9 -91%
Reds vs. Nationals Jul 23 $2 −$2 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% −$49
crypto 13% −$397
other 10% −$108
world 8% −$127
politics 3% −$194
tech 1% −$9
economics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $102 41m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 32¢ $20 49m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 50m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $80 53m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 8¢ $17 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $48 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Houston Astros 86¢ $48 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $40 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 14¢ $31 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 99¢ $69 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $31 3h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $30 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $31 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 28¢ $31 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $31 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 96¢ $154 7h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 0¢ $1 7h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $138 30h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 61¢ $99 45h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 57¢ $39 45h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 23¢ $62 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 35¢ $100 2d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $38 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 22¢ $54 7d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 247d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $24 247d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 44% -17.1%
≤30d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 44% -17.1%
≤90d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 44% -17.1%
all 415 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 41% -12.7%
10% -21.0% 36% -21.1%
15% -28.6% 32% -28.7%
20% -35.6% 27% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.29 · official $548.29 (match) · 1252 history records