Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5874…05f7 other 706 markets active 18h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,425 (+18%) realized +$1,685 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%195W / 338L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$74
14 days−$126
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$145
other 19% +$178
crypto 15% +$291
finance 11% −$515
politics 6% +$36
sports 5% +$115
tech 2% −$59
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +31.5% +18.9% 58% 55% +8.3%
≤30d 121 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 36% -13.2%
≤90d 455 -23.0% -30.3% 33% 30% -16.8%
all 533 -6.3% -15.2% 37% 33% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 33% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 27% -16.3%
15% -30.8% 22% -24.4%
20% -37.5% 19% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$3,149
Realized+$1,685
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses195 / 338
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions253
Markets (closed)533 / 706
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 253 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 94¢ $611 $787 +$176 (+29%)
Will Zcash reach $1000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 81¢ $166 $190 +$24 (+14%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 94¢ $128 $178 +$50 (+39%)
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $110 $122 +$12 (+11%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 52¢ $132 $88 −$44 (-34%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 79¢ $71 $63 −$9 (-12%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 55¢ $84 $60 −$24 (-28%)
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 85¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+18%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 88¢ $42 $52 +$9 (+22%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 74¢ 72¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? No 46¢ 69¢ $28 $42 +$14 (+52%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December? No 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 78¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 90¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 57¢ $29 $34 +$6 (+19%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 95¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 76¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will UNI reach $12.50 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 92¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $16 $26 +$9 (+56%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 83¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 76¢ 94¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 84¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $91 +$43 +48%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$8 +90%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $8 +$18 +217%
Will there be exactly 6 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +194%
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $27 +$14 +51%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$6 +186%
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $18 +$2 +14%
Will it rain in San Francisco on June 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +170%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$86 -86%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.52 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will it rain in Atlanta on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $4 +$26 +711%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $17 +$25 +146%
Will Spurs lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$9 +89%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 10 $20 +$9 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $56 +$13 +22%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$3 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $6 +$4 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 +$4 +90%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $136 −$117 -86%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? Jun 05 $26 +$2 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 05 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $7 +$3 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $16 +$4 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$10 +191%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 18h
Will 3 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 37h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 81¢ $8 41h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 70¢ $7 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 71¢ $4 45h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 71¢ $3 46h
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 46h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 46h
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 2d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 28¢ $3 3d
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 3d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $23 4d
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 4d
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $5 5d
US bank failure by June 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $8 5d
US bank failure by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 5d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $8 5d
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,148.55 · official $3,148.60 (match) · 3500 history records