Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5874…21a8 crypto 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$274 (-3%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%50W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day44.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,216
7 days−$769
14 days−$556
30 days−$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$551
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -13.5% -21.8% 45% 42% -20.0%
≤30d 103 +7.4% -2.9% 49% 45% -15.6%
≤90d 103 +7.4% -2.9% 49% 45% -15.6%
all 103 +7.4% -2.9% 49% 45% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 45% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 41% -23.7%
15% -20.6% 41% -31.1%
20% -28.4% 34% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$77 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses50 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage14d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $191 −$189 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $146 +$72 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $721 −$721 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $122 +$183 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $144 +$60 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $218 +$214 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $86 +$154 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $380 −$367 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $74 +$61 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $319 −$310 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$13 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $45 +$29 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $158 −$157 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $147 +$138 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $713 −$710 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $81 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 727 history records