Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
58 0x5879…4a49 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,741 (-71%) realized −$3,703 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$411
7 days−$3,873
14 days−$3,546
30 days−$3,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$3,785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -52.1% -56.6% 20% 20% -85.2%
≤90d 5 -52.1% -56.6% 20% 20% -85.2%
all 5 -52.1% -56.6% 20% 20% -85.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.6% 20% -85.2%
10% -60.8% 20% -86.6%
15% -64.6% 20% -87.9%
20% -68.0% 20% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$1,043 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$646
Realized−$3,703
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage14d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $600 $538 −$62 (-10%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $84 $108 +$24 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $417 −$411 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3,559 −$3,462 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $411 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $96 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $322 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $3,354 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $645.68 · official $645.68 (match) · 11 history records