Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x587b…086a sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%62W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$55
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$57
other 12% +$3
crypto 7% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -17.4% -25.3% 40% 40% -31.3%
≤30d 78 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 49% -22.0%
≤90d 102 -6.0% -15.0% 61% 57% -11.9%
all 102 -6.0% -15.0% 61% 57% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 57% -11.9%
10% -23.1% 49% -20.3%
15% -30.5% 32% -28.0%
20% -37.3% 24% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses62 / 40
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage45d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 86¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $30 −$25 -82%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$12 +81%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $20 +$8 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$30 +149%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $92 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $18 +$14 +77%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $73 −$45 -62%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $38 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $20 +$6 +29%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $20 +$8 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $27 1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL T1 Academy 63¢ $27 3d
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $28 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 48¢ $10 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $105 8d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P SELL Gentle Mates 15¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 82¢ $30 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $27 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $20 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 54¢ $15 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 61¢ $20 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $10 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 11d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 71¢ $20 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $20 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 25¢ $5 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.84 · official $26.84 (match) · 203 history records