Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x587c…9c4e crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,802 (-22%) realized −$2,317 · open −$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$1,577
crypto 22% −$436
other 21% −$1,436
world 19% −$1,290
tech 6% +$743
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -17.5% -25.4% 30% 30% -35.3%
≤30d 46 -17.5% -25.4% 30% 30% -35.3%
≤90d 46 -17.5% -25.4% 30% 30% -35.3%
all 46 -17.5% -25.4% 30% 30% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 30% -35.3%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 30% -41.5%
15% -39.0% 28% -47.2%
20% -45.0% 22% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$156 vs −$178 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$2,317
Unrealized−$485
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage2d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 6¢ 1¢ $586 $101 −$485 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 17 $711 −$247 -35%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $386 −$60 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$154 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$180 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $110 −$107 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$96 +92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $316 −$310 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $496 −$151 -30%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2,381 −$1,289 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$126 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $341 −$62 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $214 −$209 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $102 −$5 -5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $839 +$743 +88%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 16 $244 −$65 -27%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $70 −$17 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $190 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$75 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 16 $92 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$213 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$97 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$50 +49%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $605 −$316 -52%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $260 −$69 -27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Team to Take First Corner Jun 15 $580 +$212 +37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $208 −$204 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $283 −$281 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $552 −$365 -66%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $207 +$118 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$161 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $257 −$255 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $29 +$24 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $79 38m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $77 39m
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 7¢ $325 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $326 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $96 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $96 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $387 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 1¢ $6 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $103 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $345 2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $69 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $286 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $316 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $496 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,092 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.60 · official $132.60 · 160 history records