Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
58 0x5885…87d2 crypto 182 markets active 2d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$297 (+4%) realized +$297 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%125W / 57L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$79
14 days−$178
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$114
sports 31% −$116
other 14% +$207
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -23.6% -30.9% 47% 33% -27.8%
≤30d 182 -2.8% -12.0% 69% 46% -6.9%
≤90d 182 -2.8% -12.0% 69% 46% -6.9%
all 182 -2.8% -12.0% 69% 46% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 46% -6.9%
10% -20.4% 30% -15.8%
15% -28.1% 20% -24.0%
20% -35.2% 15% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$297
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses125 / 57
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage23d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $37 −$15 -40%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $16 −$1 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $60 −$13 -22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $26 +$3 +13%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $35 −$9 -27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$3 +14%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $25 −$24 -94%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -53%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $25 −$20 -77%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $25 +$8 +31%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $25 +$13 +51%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $50 −$15 -30%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $50 +$13 +26%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 03 $79 −$5 -6%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $60 +$12 +19%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $40 +$25 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 99¢ $14 2d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 91¢ $13 2d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 78¢ $25 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 100¢ $38 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 79¢ $30 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies $0 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 61¢ $10 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 48¢ $9 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 62¢ $12 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 59¢ $13 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 68¢ $15 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 80¢ $15 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 85¢ $16 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 100¢ $16 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 83¢ $13 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 17¢ $9 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 35¢ $20 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL Australia 65¢ $21 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 78¢ $26 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland SELL Scotland 100¢ $29 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 86¢ $25 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $13 5d
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates BUY United Arab Emirates 88¢ $26 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers SELL Winnipeg Blue Bombers $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Winnipeg Blue Bombers 62¢ $25 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 40¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 460 history records