Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
58 0x588d…099a other 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14,350 (+15%) realized +$9,895 · open +$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%194W / 93L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day55.3pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$21,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$233
14 days+$53
30 days+$7,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$12,205
sports 7% −$1,664
world 4% −$319
crypto 1% +$21
politics 0% −$164
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.8% -1.6% 91% 22% -5.2%
≤30d 203 +51.6% +37.1% 71% 38% +0.7%
≤90d 287 +49.9% +35.6% 68% 38% +3.1%
all 287 +49.9% +35.6% 68% 38% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.6% 38% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here +22.6% 28% -6.8%
15% +10.8% 23% -15.8%
20% -0.1% 20% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$114 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$21,944
Realized+$9,895
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses194 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions121
Markets (closed)287 / 408
History coverage59d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 121 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,210 $1,220 +$10 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $969 $991 +$23 (+2%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 70¢ $947 $976 +$29 (+3%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 69¢ $930 $861 −$69 (-7%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 96¢ $649 $697 +$48 (+7%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $679 $684 +$5 (+1%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $635 $647 +$13 (+2%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $570 $576 +$6 (+1%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 82¢ $529 $536 +$8 (+1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 78¢ $541 $528 −$14 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $506 $509 +$3 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $460 $465 +$5 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 93¢ $450 $465 +$15 (+3%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 81¢ $396 $427 +$32 (+8%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $389 $388 −$1 (-0%)
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $366 $375 +$10 (+3%)
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $365 $366 +$1 (+0%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $365 $365 +$0 (+0%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $371 $360 −$11 (-3%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 65¢ $366 $357 −$8 (-2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 70¢ 72¢ $346 $353 +$7 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $331 $332 +$2 (+1%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $318 $326 +$9 (+3%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 44¢ $317 $320 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 71¢ $340 $320 −$20 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $640 +$22 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $700 +$17 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $91 +$2 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $177 +$8 +5%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $189 +$87 +46%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $118 −$38 -32%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $127 +$3 +3%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $87 +$89 +103%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 +$1 +1%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $431 +$13 +3%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $105 +$5 +4%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $83 +$4 +4%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $136 +$9 +7%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 12 $992 +$3 +0%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $24 +$8 +34%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $162 +$4 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $208 +$7 +3%
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +3%
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +2%
Will UD Las Palmas achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2 Jun 11 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +4%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $14 +$1 +4%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +14%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +2%
Will CD Castellon achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 20 Jun 10 $162 −$23 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $163 −$25 -16%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $16 +$48 +302%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $139 +$8 +6%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $264 +$3 +1%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $437 +$4 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $610 +$106 +17%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1,660 +$124 +8%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $691 −$357 -52%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $463 −$323 -70%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 06 $962 −$91 -10%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $179 +$5 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $809 −$32 -4%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $4 +$18 +410%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $371 +$129 +35%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $573 +$47 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $17 36m
Will Tunisia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 39m
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 46m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $40 47m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $6 47m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $17 48m
Will Tunisia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 52m
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 99¢ $662 57m
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $39 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $17 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $200 1h
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- BUY No 61¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $69 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $24 1h
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $5 1h
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 64¢ $5 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $7 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $197 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 99¢ $99 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $59 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $29 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $10 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $11 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,944.28 · official $21,935.90 (match) · 3500 history records