Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x588d…f4f4 other 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 378d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$13
politics 36% −$5
sports 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
economics 7% −$2
culture 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 80 -9.1% -17.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -25.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

378d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)80 / 83
History coverage378d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $83 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $262 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 11? Jan 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $93 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $191 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 07 $89 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $1 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 30 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $91 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 34h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $73 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 43d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 106d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 107d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 107d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 107d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 109d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 109d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 110d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 110d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $78 112d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 116d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.54 · official $3.54 (match) · 328 history records