Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x588d…3f41 sports 1117 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,014 (-6%) realized −$9,572 · open +$558
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%491W / 618L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$1,421est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$889
14 days−$1,097
30 days−$1,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,872
other 0% +$473
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 38% -21.7%
≤30d 245 -15.8% -23.8% 39% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 940 -9.2% -17.8% 37% 36% -26.3%
all 1109 +12.1% +1.4% 44% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 42% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 40% -23.5%
15% -17.2% 35% -30.9%
20% -25.3% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$101 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,807
Realized−$9,572
Unrealized+$558
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses491 / 618
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,421
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1109 / 1117
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$131
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 59¢ 100¢ $482 $815 +$334 (+69%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Walczaki 33¢ 75¢ $201 $461 +$260 (+129%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 77¢ $197 $230 +$33 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Walczaki 63¢ 88¢ $118 $165 +$46 (+39%)
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Riddle 59¢ 100¢ $77 $130 +$54 (+70%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Gaming 34¢ 2¢ $106 $6 −$100 (-94%)
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Alpha Gaming 33¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) Inner Circle 60¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $30 +$62 +206%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $45 +$36 +82%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 23 $12 +$10 +85%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $196 +$71 +36%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $105 −$104 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $72 +$8 +11%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $77 +$127 +165%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $283 +$49 +17%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $18 −$17 -97%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $203 +$111 +55%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $33 −$28 -86%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $414 −$408 -99%
Map Handicap: ATRIX (-1.5) vs shimmer (+1.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 23 $265 +$139 +52%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $43 −$42 -98%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $408 −$9 -2%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 22 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $122 +$28 +23%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $60 +$83 +138%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $102 −$101 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $128 −$126 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 21 $80 +$20 +24%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $37 +$109 +292%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $109 +$92 +85%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $69 −$67 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $140 −$138 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $118 −$116 -98%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $151 −$30 -20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $44 +$74 +169%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $71 −$70 -99%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $60 −$58 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $397 +$385 +97%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $416 +$407 +98%
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$19 +60%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $196 +$43 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $131 −$128 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $199 5m
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 21¢ $24 35m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 78¢ $18 45m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 78¢ $26 45m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 67¢ $205 48m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 59¢ $121 53m
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 51¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 33¢ $32 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 31¢ $44 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 30¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 44¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 41¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Gaming 42¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Walczaki 63¢ $120 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 35¢ $109 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 59¢ $21 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 59¢ $18 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 59¢ $9 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 59¢ $9 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 59¢ $12 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY Riddle 57¢ $8 2h
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle 60¢ $37 2h
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 1 Winner BUY AGELITE 32¢ $30 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 55¢ $11 14h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN BUY Geekay Esports 30¢ $0 14h
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 54¢ $45 14h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 33¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY Atrix Esports 32¢ $101 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni - Game 4 Winner BUY Power Rangers 57¢ $105 16h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY OG 73¢ $148 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,807.04 · official $1,801.08 (match) · 3500 history records