Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5891…4912 crypto 531 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$705 (-1%) realized −$705 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate89%470W / 61L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$270
14 days−$109
30 days−$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$514
sports 13% +$78
other 10% −$316
world 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +0.6% -9.0% 87% 37% -15.2%
≤30d 108 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 38% -14.2%
≤90d 178 -0.6% -10.1% 85% 36% -11.5%
all 531 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 22% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 22% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 10% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$63 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$705
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses470 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)531 / 531
History coverage138d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 531 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $109 +$12 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $103 +$6 +6%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $97 +$6 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $94 +$3 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $92 +$2 +2%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 18 $85 +$7 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$14 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 −$42 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$16 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $66 +$7 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$7 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $105 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 +$4 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $92 +$9 +10%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $88 +$5 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $75 +$13 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 +$14 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $72 +$17 +24%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $74 −$2 -2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $58 +$16 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $376 −$375 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $354 +$22 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $337 +$17 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $239 +$10 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $81 +$6 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $146 +$9 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $122 +$28 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $234 +$34 +14%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $218 +$16 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $197 +$21 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $188 +$5 +3%
Spread: Nigeria (-1.5) Jun 10 $185 +$4 +2%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $47 +$29 +62%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $80 +$17 +21%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $56 +$2 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $130 +$7 +5%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $120 +$9 +7%
Denmark leading at halftime? Jun 07 $105 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $109 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $109 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $103 2h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $97 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $94 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $94 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $92 24h
Ghana leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $92 24h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 92¢ $85 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $79 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $64 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 41h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $47 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $47 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $89 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $73 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $66 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $59 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $109 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $105 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $105 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $101 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1145 history records