Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x5896…49ae politics 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$112 (+3%) realized +$121 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$197
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$64
other 31% +$20
sports 5% +$155
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$8
culture 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.4% +7.1% 100% 50% -0.1%
≤30d 3 -21.1% -28.6% 67% 33% -8.3%
≤90d 3 -21.1% -28.6% 67% 33% -8.3%
all 26 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 15% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 15% -6.8%
10% -19.4% 15% -15.7%
15% -27.1% 15% -23.8%
20% -34.3% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$24 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage372d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 24 $1,388 +$17 +1%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $506 +$180 +36%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 14 $174 −$170 -98%
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? Jul 19 $80 −$79 -100%
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) Jul 17 $71 +$68 +95%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jul 17 $4 $0 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jul 17 $4 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $8 −$4 -48%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jul 15 $72 −$1 -1%
US recession in 2025? Jul 15 $203 −$3 -2%
Starmer out in 2025? Jul 15 $181 +$6 +3%
Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? Jul 09 $8 $0 +4%
Tom Brady and Sydney Sweeney confirmed relationship before August? Jul 08 $12 −$4 -37%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) Jul 05 $118 +$85 +72%
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jul 04 $105 −$6 -5%
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Jul 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of Jul 04 $50 −$42 -84%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks? Jul 04 $61 −$46 -75%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $99 −$1 -1%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jul 04 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Diddy be sentenced to life in prison? Jul 02 $60 +$2 +4%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 02 $50 +$106 +212%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +7%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $46 −$10 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $1 1h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? BUY No 58¢ $393 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY No 82¢ $302 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $696 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $3 24h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $701 24h
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 92¢ $710 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 89¢ $687 5d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $506 9d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 38¢ $174 9d
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? SELL No $0 339d
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? BUY No 58¢ $80 340d
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) SELL England 100¢ $80 341d
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) BUY England 75¢ $60 341d
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) SELL England 46¢ $60 341d
UEFA Women’s Euro: Sweden vs. England (To Advance) BUY England $12 341d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 84¢ $4 341d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 84¢ $4 341d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $4 341d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 76¢ $71 344d
US recession in 2025? SELL No 79¢ $76 344d
Starmer out in 2025? SELL No 86¢ $188 344d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $8 349d
Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? SELL No 99¢ $8 349d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 86¢ $4 350d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 87¢ $4 350d
Tom Brady and Sydney Sweeney confirmed relationship before August? SELL Yes $8 350d
Starmer out in 2025? BUY No 84¢ $107 351d
Starmer out in 2025? BUY No 83¢ $74 352d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $686.83 · official $686.90 (match) · 70 history records