Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x5898…8229 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$730 (-29%) realized −$711 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$618
14 days−$738
30 days−$738
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$635
sports 36% −$101
world 1% −$11
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-64.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -56.9% -61.0% 26% 23% -35.7%
≤30d 34 -60.7% -64.4% 24% 21% -39.1%
≤90d 34 -60.7% -64.4% 24% 21% -39.1%
all 34 -60.7% -64.4% 24% 21% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -64.4% 21% -39.1%
10% -67.8% 18% -44.9%
15% -70.9% 15% -50.2%
20% -73.8% 12% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$45 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$711
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage11d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 34¢ 33¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $250 +$8 +3%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $90 +$64 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $401 −$400 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $302 +$83 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 26m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $51 4h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $20 4h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots BUY No 1¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $250 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) BUY Qatar 2¢ $21 2d
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $21 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 60¢ $28 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 42¢ $20 3d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 34¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.53 · official $210.54 (match) · 65 history records