Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x589a…696f other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$22 (+10%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%62W / 108L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$22
sports 15% +$4
world 4% +$1
crypto 1% −$2
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 43% -24.2%
≤30d 31 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 42% -14.0%
≤90d 82 -33.0% -39.3% 26% 23% -38.4%
all 170 +16.4% +5.3% 36% 35% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 35% -4.2%
10% -4.7% 34% -13.4%
15% -13.9% 31% -21.8%
20% -22.4% 23% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +68% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses62 / 108
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 170
History coverage203d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +41%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 +$2 +208%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 37h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 38h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 39h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 48¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 5d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic SELL Benjamin Bonzi 100¢ $1 8d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Benjamin Bonzi 75¢ $1 8d
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 9d
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo SELL Sebastian Baez 100¢ $1 9d
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Sebastian Baez 76¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 350 history records