Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
58 0x58a3…c0ac other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$52 (-5%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$81
sports 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.9% +3.0% 83% 67% -16.0%
≤30d 6 +13.9% +3.0% 83% 67% -16.0%
≤90d 6 +13.9% +3.0% 83% 67% -16.0%
all 6 +13.9% +3.0% 83% 67% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 67% -16.0%
10% -6.8% 33% -24.0%
15% -15.8% 33% -31.4%
20% -24.1% 33% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$195 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage101d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $79 $83 +$4 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 14¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $54 +$9 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $247 −$195 -79%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 +$19 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $217 +$30 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $199 +$18 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $115 +$58 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $80 16m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $54 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 36¢ $52 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $247 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $217 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $172 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $115 2d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 57¢ $4 98d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.43 · official $96.43 (match) · 20 history records