Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x58b2…1cbf crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$136 (+12%) realized +$118 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%74W / 55L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$173
crypto 22% −$27
other 7% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 42% +1.7%
≤30d 129 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 42% +1.7%
≤90d 129 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 42% +1.7%
all 129 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 42% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 42% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 25% -8.0%
15% -32.4% 18% -16.9%
20% -39.0% 15% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses74 / 55
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna Thiago Seyboth Wild 82¢ 98¢ $90 $107 +$17 (+19%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 73¢ 74¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $25 −$3 -11%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $10 +$15 +152%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $19 −$18 -93%
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Lorenzo Rottoli Jun 27 $14 −$11 -77%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $111 +$31 +28%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $111 +$34 +31%
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich Jun 27 $109 +$15 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 26 $15 −$6 -39%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $10 +$13 +132%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Cezar Cretu Jun 26 $10 +$9 +93%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar Jun 26 $52 +$8 +16%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $13 +$14 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $33 +$6 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $20 +$12 +62%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $8 −$7 -99%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +107%
Piracicaba: Maximo Zeitune vs Nicolas Zanellato Jun 26 $15 +$4 +29%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $8 +$1 +12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $5 +$7 +139%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +6%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Ognjen Milic Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 20¢ $1 14m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 77¢ $7 15m
Piracicaba: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 82¢ $90 24m
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 36¢ $5 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp SELL Sandro Kopp 28¢ $14 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 73¢ $60 1h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal SELL Sumit Nagal 100¢ $26 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 38¢ $20 2h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Ethan Quinn $1 2h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 39¢ $10 4h
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Lorenzo Rottoli SELL Lorenzo Rottoli 17¢ $3 4h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Ethan Quinn 42¢ $19 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $141 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 78¢ $111 6h
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Lorenzo Rottoli BUY Lorenzo Rottoli 39¢ $14 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 99¢ $145 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 75¢ $111 8h
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich SELL Dylan Dietrich 99¢ $124 8h
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Dylan Dietrich BUY Dylan Dietrich 87¢ $109 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $3 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 62¢ $2 20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 20h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 100¢ $55 20h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 54¢ $30 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov SELL Sandro Kopp 100¢ $18 23h
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Petr Nesterov BUY Sandro Kopp 56¢ $10 25h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 46¢ $9 25h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 74¢ $15 25h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 99¢ $24 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.78 · official $167.78 (match) · 380 history records