Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58b9…ee8b sports 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 690d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23,097 (-10%) realized −$23,487 · open +$390
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%94W / 114L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,034per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3,269est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3,499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,576
7 days+$6,423
14 days+$6,225
30 days+$4,905
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$20,749
other 1% −$2,227
politics 0% −$607
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +32.5% +19.8% 67% 64% +25.4%
≤30d 38 +25.2% +13.3% 63% 61% +13.9%
≤90d 187 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 48% -19.2%
all 208 -10.6% -19.2% 45% 44% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -19.4%
10% -26.9% 44% -27.1%
15% -34.0% 44% -34.2%
20% -40.4% 43% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,540) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$992 vs −$1,029 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

690d coverage
Net worth$3,499
Realized−$23,487
Unrealized+$390
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses94 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3,269
Open positions9
Markets (closed)208 / 217
History coverage690d
Avg bet$1,034
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 41¢ 47¢ $820 $940 +$120 (+15%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 78¢ $520 $785 +$265 (+51%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $598 $592 −$6 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 44¢ $344 $348 +$4 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 55¢ 55¢ $275 $272 −$2 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 44¢ $215 $218 +$2 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 54¢ $208 $214 +$6 (+3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $348 +$352 +101%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1,276 +$1,282 +100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $648 +$1,152 +178%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $510 +$490 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $294 +$206 +70%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $588 +$612 +104%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $294 +$206 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $146 +$154 +105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $684 −$672 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $164 −$162 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $795 −$795 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $804 +$696 +87%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $234 +$266 +114%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $615 +$885 +144%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $825 +$675 +82%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $774 −$772 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $500 +$500 +100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $490 +$510 +104%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $520 +$480 +92%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $480 +$33 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $590 −$590 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $490 +$510 +104%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $480 −$480 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $500 +$500 +100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $540 +$460 +85%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $450 +$550 +122%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $520 −$520 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $487 +$513 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $500 +$500 +100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $470 −$470 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $497 −$490 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $207 +$193 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $204 +$188 +92%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $250 −$250 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $334 −$329 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 22 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 14 $3,234 −$3,192 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 May 14 $1,995 −$1,991 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 14 $1,785 +$1,711 +96%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $1,540 −$1,540 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox May 14 $497 +$503 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $740 +$1,260 +170%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 13 $780 −$770 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 13 $920 −$920 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 13 $975 +$1,025 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 12 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $1,342 −$1,320 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $44 3m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 4m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 5m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 6m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 7m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 9m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 10m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 10m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 12m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 16m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 17m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 23m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 24m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 31m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 42m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 42m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 43m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 43m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 44m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 45m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 46m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $138 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $460 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $350 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $219 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 55¢ $279 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $314 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $578 20h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $648 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,498.57 · official $3,528.57 (match) · 1712 history records