Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58bc…7377 crypto 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,155 (-5%) realized −$1,147 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%113W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$45
14 days−$56
30 days−$2,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,217
other 0% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.7% -21.9% 45% 39% -17.0%
≤30d 237 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 43% -18.6%
≤90d 237 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 43% -18.6%
all 237 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 43% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 43% -18.6%
10% -26.0% 37% -26.4%
15% -33.1% 31% -33.5%
20% -39.7% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$63 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1,147
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses113 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage27d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Down 37¢ 27¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$13 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$15 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $15 −$5 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$23 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$22 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$14 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $181 −$40 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$44 +180%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 24, 9AM ET? Jun 24 $13 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 24, 9AM ET? Jun 24 $5 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 23, 4AM ET? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 5PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $32 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$15 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$53 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$14 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $74 −$59 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$27 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$21 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $153 −$56 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $82 +$28 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $20 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $28 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $27 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $36 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $47 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $47 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $33 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $35 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.12 · official $30.31 · 576 history records