Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58be…4504 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$635 (-39%) realized −$647 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$697
sports 15% +$120
world 10% −$95
crypto 4% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -41.2% -46.8% 29% 29% -45.4%
≤30d 25 -43.6% -48.9% 28% 28% -49.1%
≤90d 25 -43.6% -48.9% 28% 28% -49.1%
all 25 -43.6% -48.9% 28% 28% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 28% -49.1%
10% -53.8% 28% -53.9%
15% -58.3% 28% -58.4%
20% -62.4% 20% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$53 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$647
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage7d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 74¢ $77 $83 +$6 (+8%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$22 +46%
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess Jun 21 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $186 −$185 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $127 +$59 +47%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$39 +67%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -5%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 −$111 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$40 +57%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $139 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $71 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 17h
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess SELL Yes 40¢ $49 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $186 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $29 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $58 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $112 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes $21 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.64 · official $148.64 (match) · 43 history records