Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
58 0x58c0…1c8e finance 399 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,816 (+11%) realized +$19,011 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%232W / 148L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$449per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 65% −$3,254
other 15% +$4,324
world 7% −$1,438
tech 4% +$1,161
crypto 4% +$4,561
politics 3% −$1,014
economics 1% −$593
sports 0% −$299
culture 0% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 22% -9.3%
≤30d 51 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 25% +8.1%
≤90d 150 -3.4% -12.6% 56% 47% -0.6%
all 380 -0.9% -10.3% 61% 50% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 50% -7.6%
10% -18.9% 30% -16.4%
15% -26.7% 21% -24.5%
20% -33.9% 17% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$180 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$4,928
Realized+$19,011
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses232 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions19
Markets (closed)380 / 399
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$449
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 60¢ 42¢ $1,376 $967 −$409 (-30%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $781 $808 +$26 (+3%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 58¢ 73¢ $413 $525 +$111 (+27%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 66¢ 80¢ $361 $443 +$82 (+23%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 68¢ $337 $405 +$68 (+20%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $376 $375 −$1 (-0%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $352 $358 +$6 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $255 $262 +$8 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $208 $234 +$26 (+12%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 75¢ 68¢ $112 $103 −$9 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 62¢ 86¢ $62 $86 +$24 (+38%)
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 46¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 14¢ 34¢ $29 $69 +$40 (+140%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $78 $57 −$21 (-27%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 78¢ 93¢ $47 $56 +$9 (+20%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No 13¢ 16¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No 5¢ 5¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $108 $23 −$85 (-78%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $88 $11 −$77 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,519 +$1,490 +98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $41 +$26 +65%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $71 −$61 -86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,043 +$65 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $878 −$855 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $650 −$88 -14%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $45 +$8 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $117 −$72 -61%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $238 −$129 -54%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$31 -62%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $34 −$15 -43%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $647 −$41 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $216 +$33 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $465 +$35 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $364 −$140 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $425 −$170 -40%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$35 -88%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $1,694 +$1 +0%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $289 −$9 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $257 −$254 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $71 −$70 -99%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $147 +$5 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $225 −$1 -0%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $27 +$5 +18%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $446 −$179 -40%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 06 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$94 +188%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 04 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sai Sudharsan win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $564 +$6 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,877 +$4,688 +250%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $50 −$39 -78%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $195 +$84 +43%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $1,769 +$225 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $906 +$90 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $274 +$290 +106%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $250 +$199 +80%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 29 $252 +$198 +78%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $480 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $78 +$42 +54%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 27 $240 −$240 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $241 +$12 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 May 22 $102 +$9 +9%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $64 +$4 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $493 25m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $71 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 36m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 27¢ $334 38m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $420 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 46m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $215 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 47¢ $71 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $102 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $140 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $282 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $130 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 44¢ $132 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $426 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $171 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $78 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 78¢ $234 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 71¢ $612 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 71¢ $497 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 82¢ $399 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 86¢ $227 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $99 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $315 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,928.37 · official $4,880.21 (match) · 3500 history records