Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
58 0x58c3…ed45 crypto 1517 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%811W / 706L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$49
14 days−$18
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 46% -23.9%
≤30d 617 -7.9% -16.6% 52% 52% -16.2%
≤90d 1517 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 53% -9.7%
all 1517 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 53% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 53% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 53% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 53% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 52% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses811 / 706
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1517 / 1517
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1517 Trades
no open positions (488 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2671 history records